Back to UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
🏆 Title fight Main Women's Bantamweight

Amanda Nunes vs Julianna Pena

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Amanda Nunes
Julianna Pena
82% 18%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
34
Age
Δ 1y
32
24-5
Career record
Δ 13 pp
14-6
W8
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Nunes: 46 sig / 1 TD · Pena: 79 sig / 1 TD
Amanda Nunes
Julianna Pena
66
Sig strikes landed
35
113
Sig strikes attempted
83
103
Total strikes landed
53
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.3
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
257s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
32%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W8

Amanda Nunes

"The Lioness"
24-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 15 fights · 14-1
Last 5
W UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
W UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
W UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
W UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
W UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
Blue corner
W1

Julianna Pena

"The Venezuelan Vixen"
14-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
L UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
W UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
L UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
W UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes