Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kai Kara-France
Cody Garbrandt
75%
25%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
29
Age
Δ 2y
30
26-12
Career record
Δ 3 pp
15-8
W1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kara-France: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Garbrandt: 9 sig / 0 TD
Kai Kara-France
Cody Garbrandt
55
Sig strikes landed
39
126
Sig strikes attempted
111
77
Total strikes landed
48
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
103s
Control time
46s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kai Kara-France
"Don't Blink"
26-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
Blue corner
L1
Cody Garbrandt
"No Love"
15-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
L
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—