Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Raulian Paiva
Sean O'Malley
53%
47%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
22-5
Career record
Δ 5 pp
20-3
W3
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Paiva: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
O'Malley: 39 sig / 0 TD
Raulian Paiva
Sean O'Malley
49
Sig strikes landed
65
116
Sig strikes attempted
120
63
Total strikes landed
69
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.9
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
104s
Control time
23s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Raulian Paiva
22-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
L
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
W2
Sean O'Malley
"Suga"
20-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—