🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Charles Oliveira
Dustin Poirier
74%
26%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
38-11
Career record
Δ 2 pp
31-10
W8
Current streak
W3
28
UFC fights in our DB
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Oliveira: 73 sig / 0 TD ·
Poirier: 58 sig / 0 TD
Charles Oliveira
Dustin Poirier
43
Sig strikes landed
63
93
Sig strikes attempted
83
60
Total strikes landed
66
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
110s
Control time
184s
Method
Decision
12%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
66%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
28 fights · 19-8
Last 5
W
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W3
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
26 fights · 20-5
Last 5
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—