Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jake Hadley
Mitch Raposo
62%
38%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
64"
25
Age
Δ 2y
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Hadley: 26 sig / 1 TD ·
Raposo: 21 sig / 2 TD
Jake Hadley
Mitch Raposo
38
Sig strikes landed
37
79
Sig strikes attempted
73
52
Total strikes landed
53
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jake Hadley
"White Kong"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
Blue corner
Mitch Raposo
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Switch
Age
23