Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joshua Weems
Fernie Garcia
69%
31%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
27
Age
Δ 2y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Weems: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Garcia: 12 sig / 0 TD
Joshua Weems
Fernie Garcia
39
Sig strikes landed
36
82
Sig strikes attempted
74
56
Total strikes landed
52
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Joshua Weems
"Wide Open"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Fernie Garcia
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30