Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Shonte Barnes
Joseph Holmes
44%
56%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
35
Age
Δ 8y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Barnes: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Holmes: 12 sig / 2 TD
Shonte Barnes
Joseph Holmes
31
Sig strikes landed
39
56
Sig strikes attempted
82
51
Total strikes landed
52
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.5
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
144s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Shonte Barnes
"Shyne"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
Blue corner
Joseph Holmes
"Uglyman Joe"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26