Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Daniel Barez
Carlos Hernandez
60%
40%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
33
Age
Δ 5y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Barez: 52 sig / 5 TD ·
Hernandez: 77 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Barez
Carlos Hernandez
38
Sig strikes landed
37
78
Sig strikes attempted
80
54
Total strikes landed
51
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
168s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Daniel Barez
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Carlos Hernandez
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28