Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Shimon Smotritsky
Mike Malott
58%
42%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
21
Age
Δ 9y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Smotritsky: 0 sig / 1 TD ·
Malott: 1 sig / 0 TD
Shimon Smotritsky
Mike Malott
35
Sig strikes landed
35
77
Sig strikes attempted
70
45
Total strikes landed
54
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
94s
Control time
176s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Shimon Smotritsky
"The Assassin"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
Blue corner
Mike Malott
"Proper"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30