Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jeff Molina
Daniel Lacerda
66%
34%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
24
Age
Δ 1y
25
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Molina: 47 sig / 0 TD ·
Lacerda: 20 sig / 0 TD
Jeff Molina
Daniel Lacerda
24
Sig strikes landed
52
59
Sig strikes attempted
125
53
Total strikes landed
61
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.2
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
241s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jeff Molina
"El Jefe"
12-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
Blue corner
Daniel Lacerda
"Miojo"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
25