Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Khama Worthy
Jai Herbert
50%
50%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
16-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
14-7-1
L2
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Worthy: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Herbert: 24 sig / 0 TD
Khama Worthy
Jai Herbert
32
Sig strikes landed
25
66
Sig strikes attempted
59
45
Total strikes landed
40
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
57s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Khama Worthy
"The Death Star"
16-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
Blue corner
L2
Jai Herbert
"Black Country Banger"
14-7-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—