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Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Tabatha Ricci vs Maria Oliveira

UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Tabatha Ricci
Maria Oliveira
55% 45%
Why
61"
Reach
Δ 8"
69"
27
Age
Δ 2y
25
L1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ricci: 62 sig / 5 TD · Oliveira: 66 sig / 0 TD
Tabatha Ricci
Maria Oliveira
31
Sig strikes landed
45
72
Sig strikes attempted
90
51
Total strikes landed
66
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
87s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
32%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Tabatha Ricci

"Baby Shark"
12-5
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
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Blue corner

Maria Oliveira

"Spider-Girl"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25