Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mason Jones
David Onama
70%
30%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jones: 87 sig / 8 TD ·
Onama: 90 sig / 0 TD
Mason Jones
David Onama
65
Sig strikes landed
70
151
Sig strikes attempted
161
106
Total strikes landed
86
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.1
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
143s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mason Jones
"The Dragon"
18-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
Blue corner
David Onama
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27