Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Francisco Trinaldo
Dwight Grant
81%
19%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
43
Age
Δ 6y
37
28-10
Career record
Δ 7 pp
12-6
L1
Current streak
W1
23
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Trinaldo: 36 sig / 1 TD ·
Grant: 31 sig / 1 TD
Francisco Trinaldo
Dwight Grant
41
Sig strikes landed
39
86
Sig strikes attempted
93
70
Total strikes landed
50
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.1
4.1
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
186s
Control time
19s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
28-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
43
In our database
23 fights · 16-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Dwight Grant
"The Body Snatcher"
12-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
37
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—