Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alex Caceres
SeungWoo Choi
58%
42%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
22-15
Career record
Δ 1 pp
12-8
W4
Current streak
W3
24
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Caceres: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Choi: 33 sig / 0 TD
Alex Caceres
SeungWoo Choi
54
Sig strikes landed
46
106
Sig strikes attempted
116
72
Total strikes landed
55
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
78s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
22-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
24 fights · 13-10
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
Blue corner
W3
SeungWoo Choi
"Sting"
12-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
L
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—