Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jim Miller
Erick Gonzalez
75%
25%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
38
Age
Δ 8y
30
L2
Current streak
—
32
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Miller: 32 sig / 1 TD ·
Gonzalez: 14 sig / 1 TD
Jim Miller
Erick Gonzalez
28
Sig strikes landed
32
57
Sig strikes attempted
67
41
Total strikes landed
46
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.9
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
174s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jim Miller
"A-10"
39-20
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
32 fights · 17-14
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
Blue corner
Erick Gonzalez
"The Ghost Pepper"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30