Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Carlos Felipe
35%
65%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
43
Age
Δ 16y
27
35-24
Career record
Δ 26 pp
12-2
W1
Current streak
W3
21
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Arlovski: 83 sig / 0 TD ·
Felipe: 73 sig / 0 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Carlos Felipe
70
Sig strikes landed
66
151
Sig strikes attempted
129
72
Total strikes landed
79
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.1
1.8
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
85s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
89%
KO/TKO
7%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
35-24
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43
In our database
21 fights · 10-10
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
Blue corner
W3
Carlos Felipe
"Boi"
12-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—