Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Aspen Ladd
Norma Dumont
58%
42%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
27
Age
Δ 4y
31
10-3
Career record
Δ 5 pp
14-3
W1
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Ladd: 33 sig / 0 TD ·
Dumont: 65 sig / 1 TD
Aspen Ladd
Norma Dumont
37
Sig strikes landed
41
76
Sig strikes attempted
82
64
Total strikes landed
66
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
194s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Aspen Ladd
10-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
Blue corner
W2
Norma Dumont
"The Immortal"
14-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—