Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Islam Makhachev
Dan Hooker
91%
9%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
29-1
Career record
Δ 33 pp
25-14
W8
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Makhachev: 2 sig / 1 TD ·
Hooker: 4 sig / 0 TD
Islam Makhachev
Dan Hooker
41
Sig strikes landed
25
77
Sig strikes attempted
66
64
Total strikes landed
42
3.0
Takedowns landed
0.1
5.4
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
301s
Control time
23s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Islam Makhachev
29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 9-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
Blue corner
W1
Dan Hooker
"The Hangman"
25-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
17 fights · 11-6
Last 5
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—