Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexander Volkov
Marcin Tybura
85%
15%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
33
Age
Δ 3y
36
40-12
Career record
Δ 5 pp
28-11
L1
Current streak
W5
10
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Volkov: 75 sig / 0 TD ·
Tybura: 58 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Volkov
Marcin Tybura
60
Sig strikes landed
57
113
Sig strikes attempted
112
80
Total strikes landed
67
0.0
Takedowns landed
1.7
-0.5
Takedowns attempted
8.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
48s
Control time
217s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alexander Volkov
"Drago"
40-12
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
Blue corner
W5
Marcin Tybura
"Tybur"
28-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—