Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Li Jingliang
Khamzat Chimaev
35%
65%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
34
Age
Δ 6y
28
20-9
Career record
Δ 25 pp
16-1
W1
Current streak
W3
14
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Jingliang: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Chimaev: 25 sig / 1 TD
Li Jingliang
Khamzat Chimaev
42
Sig strikes landed
43
94
Sig strikes attempted
98
43
Total strikes landed
55
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.0
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
40s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Li Jingliang
"The Leech"
20-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
L
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
Blue corner
W3
Khamzat Chimaev
"Borz"
16-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—