Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Lucas Almeida
Daniel Zellhuber
38%
62%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 6"
77"
31
Age
Δ 8y
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Almeida: 96 sig / 0 TD ·
Zellhuber: 115 sig / 1 TD
Lucas Almeida
Daniel Zellhuber
33
Sig strikes landed
41
66
Sig strikes attempted
83
47
Total strikes landed
54
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
126s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Lucas Almeida
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Daniel Zellhuber
"Golden Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Switch
Age
22