Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Caio Borralho
Aaron Jeffery
78%
22%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Borralho: 68 sig / 3 TD ·
Jeffery: 36 sig / 0 TD
Caio Borralho
Aaron Jeffery
31
Sig strikes landed
26
50
Sig strikes attempted
47
57
Total strikes landed
32
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
145s
Control time
339s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Caio Borralho
"The Natural"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
Blue corner
L1
Aaron Jeffery
10-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 3.4
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