Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Lucasz Sudolski
Ihor Potieria
42%
58%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
75"
28
Age
Δ 3y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Sudolski: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Potieria: 18 sig / 0 TD
Lucasz Sudolski
Ihor Potieria
30
Sig strikes landed
37
65
Sig strikes attempted
73
42
Total strikes landed
55
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
107s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Lucasz Sudolski
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Ihor Potieria
"Duelist"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25