Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Morales
Nikolay Veretennikov
91%
9%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
22
Age
Δ 10y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Morales: 53 sig / 4 TD ·
Veretennikov: 52 sig / 0 TD
Michael Morales
Nikolay Veretennikov
44
Sig strikes landed
31
87
Sig strikes attempted
68
84
Total strikes landed
44
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
193s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Michael Morales
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
Blue corner
Nikolay Veretennikov
"Gladiator"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32