Back to UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Prelims1 Middleweight

Phil Hawes vs Chris Curtis

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 ·Madison Square Garden
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Phil Hawes
Chris Curtis
30% 70%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
33
Age
Δ 2y
34
W3
Current streak
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3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hawes: 48 sig / 0 TD · Curtis: 21 sig / 0 TD
Phil Hawes
Chris Curtis
34
Sig strikes landed
27
69
Sig strikes attempted
58
57
Total strikes landed
44
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
220s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Phil Hawes

"No Hype"
13-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
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W UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
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Blue corner

Chris Curtis

"Action-Man"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34