Back to UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Prelims1 Lightweight

Al Iaquinta vs King Green

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 ·Madison Square Garden
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Al Iaquinta
King Green
30% 70%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
34
Age
Δ 1y
35
14-8-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
35-18-1
L2
Current streak
L2
14
UFC fights in our DB
16

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Iaquinta: 10 sig / 0 TD · Green: 28 sig / 0 TD
Al Iaquinta
King Green
59
Sig strikes landed
80
148
Sig strikes attempted
156
63
Total strikes landed
86
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
82s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Al Iaquinta

"Raging"
14-8-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
L UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
L UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
Blue corner
L2

King Green

35-18-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 16 fights · 8-7
Last 5
L UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—