Back to UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Prelims2 Heavyweight

Gian Villante vs Chris Barnett

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 ·Madison Square Garden
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Gian Villante
Chris Barnett
33% 67%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
36
Age
Δ 1y
35
17-15
Career record
Δ 15 pp
23-11
L3
Current streak
L1
17
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Villante: 30 sig / 0 TD · Barnett: 38 sig / 0 TD
Gian Villante
Chris Barnett
48
Sig strikes landed
52
106
Sig strikes attempted
105
68
Total strikes landed
65
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.60
28s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Gian Villante

17-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 17 fights · 7-10
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
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L UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
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L UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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W UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
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L UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
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Blue corner
L1

Chris Barnett

"Beastboy"
23-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
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