Back to UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Prelims2 Welterweight

Ian Machado Garry vs Jordan Williams

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 ·Madison Square Garden
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ian Machado Garry
Jordan Williams
87% 13%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
24
Age
Δ 7y
31
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Machado Garry: 18 sig / 0 TD · Williams: 22 sig / 0 TD
Ian Machado Garry
Jordan Williams
41
Sig strikes landed
21
69
Sig strikes attempted
56
61
Total strikes landed
35
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
180s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ian Machado Garry

"The Future"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
L2

Jordan Williams

"Bomaye"
9-7 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—