Prelims2
Light Heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby vs John Allan
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Dustin Jacoby
John Allan
66%
34%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
23-9-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
13-8
W1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jacoby: 153 sig / 0 TD ·
Allan: 77 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Jacoby
John Allan
61
Sig strikes landed
29
115
Sig strikes attempted
79
55
Total strikes landed
38
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
61s
Control time
27s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dustin Jacoby
"The Hanyak"
23-9-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
Blue corner
L1
John Allan
13-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—