Main
Featherweight
Shane Burgos vs Billy Quarantillo
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Shane Burgos
Billy Quarantillo
63%
37%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
15-4
Career record
Δ 6 pp
19-7
L2
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Burgos: 193 sig / 0 TD ·
Quarantillo: 164 sig / 0 TD
Shane Burgos
Billy Quarantillo
102
Sig strikes landed
77
192
Sig strikes attempted
158
113
Total strikes landed
97
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.2
Takedowns attempted
8.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
44s
Control time
180s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Shane Burgos
"Hurricane"
15-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
Blue corner
W1
Billy Quarantillo
19-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
L
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—