Back to UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Main Bantamweight

Frankie Edgar vs Marlon Vera

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 ·Madison Square Garden
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Frankie Edgar
Marlon Vera
41% 59%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
40
Age
Δ 11y
29
23-12-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
24-12-1
L1
Current streak
W1
21
UFC fights in our DB
17

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Edgar: 94 sig / 3 TD · Vera: 88 sig / 0 TD
Frankie Edgar
Marlon Vera
72
Sig strikes landed
75
138
Sig strikes attempted
155
92
Total strikes landed
80
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.4
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
200s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Frankie Edgar

"The Answer"
23-12-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database 21 fights · 12-8
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
L UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
Blue corner
W1

Marlon Vera

"Chito"
24-12-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database 17 fights · 11-6
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
L UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—