Main
Lightweight
Justin Gaethje vs Michael Chandler
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Justin Gaethje
Michael Chandler
81%
19%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
33
Age
Δ 2y
36
27-6
Career record
Δ 14 pp
23-11
L1
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gaethje: 116 sig / 0 TD ·
Chandler: 103 sig / 1 TD
Justin Gaethje
Michael Chandler
60
Sig strikes landed
35
106
Sig strikes attempted
83
73
Total strikes landed
42
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
91s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
27-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
Blue corner
L1
Michael Chandler
"Iron"
23-11
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—