Back to UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Prelims2 Featherweight

Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Bruno Souza

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 ·Madison Square Garden
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Melsik Baghdasaryan
Bruno Souza
44% 56%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
W1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Baghdasaryan: 75 sig / 0 TD · Souza: 46 sig / 0 TD
Melsik Baghdasaryan
Bruno Souza
35
Sig strikes landed
32
75
Sig strikes attempted
70
45
Total strikes landed
43
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
93s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Melsik Baghdasaryan

"The Gun"
9-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
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Blue corner

Bruno Souza

"The Tiger"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26