Back to UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Prelims1 Middleweight

Alex Pereira vs Andreas Michailidis

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 ·Madison Square Garden
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Alex Pereira
Andreas Michailidis
63% 37%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Pereira: 11 sig / 0 TD · Michailidis: 3 sig / 2 TD
Alex Pereira
Andreas Michailidis
40
Sig strikes landed
42
95
Sig strikes attempted
76
57
Total strikes landed
54
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
132s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Alex Pereira

"Poatan"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
W1

Andreas Michailidis

"The Spartan"
14-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
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