🏆 Title fight
Main
Women's Strawweight
Rose Namajunas vs Zhang Weili
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rose Namajunas
Zhang Weili
31%
69%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
63"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
16-8
Career record
Δ 17 pp
26-5
W2
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Namajunas: 86 sig / 2 TD ·
Weili: 83 sig / 5 TD
Rose Namajunas
Zhang Weili
65
Sig strikes landed
69
157
Sig strikes attempted
152
83
Total strikes landed
101
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
120s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Rose Namajunas
"Thug"
16-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
Blue corner
L1
Zhang Weili
"Magnum"
26-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—