Back to UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
🏆 Title fight Main Welterweight

Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 ·Madison Square Garden
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Kamaru Usman
Colby Covington
74% 26%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
34
Age
Δ 1y
34
22-4
Career record
Δ 6 pp
18-5
W8
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
13

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Usman: 123 sig / 1 TD · Covington: 107 sig / 0 TD
Kamaru Usman
Colby Covington
91
Sig strikes landed
75
205
Sig strikes attempted
187
139
Total strikes landed
118
1.9
Takedowns landed
2.5
4.8
Takedowns attempted
9.6
0.90
Knockdowns
0.00
221s
Control time
225s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W8

Kamaru Usman

"The Nigerian Nightmare"
22-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database 14 fights · 14-0
Last 5
W UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
Blue corner
W1

Colby Covington

"Chaos"
18-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 13 fights · 11-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
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L UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
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W UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
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