Prelims1
Heavyweight
Alexandr Romanov vs Jared Vanderaa
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexandr Romanov
Jared Vanderaa
85%
15%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 5"
80"
31
Age
Δ 1y
29
19-3
Career record
Δ 30 pp
13-10
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Romanov: 56 sig / 5 TD ·
Vanderaa: 13 sig / 0 TD
Alexandr Romanov
Jared Vanderaa
42
Sig strikes landed
31
90
Sig strikes attempted
60
64
Total strikes landed
36
3.1
Takedowns landed
-0.2
6.8
Takedowns attempted
-0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
300s
Control time
-17s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Alexandr Romanov
"King Kong"
19-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jared Vanderaa
13-10
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—