Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Gutierrez
Felipe Colares
74%
26%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 3y
28
23-7-2
Career record
Δ 1 pp
11-4
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Gutierrez: 96 sig / 0 TD ·
Colares: 41 sig / 1 TD
Chris Gutierrez
Felipe Colares
51
Sig strikes landed
29
90
Sig strikes attempted
75
72
Total strikes landed
47
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.4
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
121s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chris Gutierrez
"El Guapo"
23-7-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
Blue corner
W1
Felipe Colares
"Cabocao"
11-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—