Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Sabina Mazo
Mariya Agapova
60%
40%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
24
Age
24
9-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
10-6
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Mazo: 62 sig / 0 TD ·
Agapova: 93 sig / 0 TD
Sabina Mazo
Mariya Agapova
53
Sig strikes landed
55
87
Sig strikes attempted
131
65
Total strikes landed
71
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.0
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
147s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Sabina Mazo
"Colombian Queen"
9-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
L1
Mariya Agapova
"Money Mashka"
10-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—