Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tim Elliott
Matheus Nicolau
34%
66%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
23-14-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
20-6-1
W2
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elliott: 70 sig / 1 TD ·
Nicolau: 64 sig / 1 TD
Tim Elliott
Matheus Nicolau
39
Sig strikes landed
52
97
Sig strikes attempted
107
60
Total strikes landed
67
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
5.8
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
156s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tim Elliott
23-14-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
15 fights · 6-9
Last 5
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
Blue corner
W1
Matheus Nicolau
20-6-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—