Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Randy Brown
Jared Gooden
51%
49%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
31
Age
Δ 4y
28
21-8
Career record
Δ 2 pp
24-10
W1
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brown: 115 sig / 0 TD ·
Gooden: 81 sig / 0 TD
Randy Brown
Jared Gooden
51
Sig strikes landed
48
119
Sig strikes attempted
105
66
Total strikes landed
66
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
146s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Randy Brown
"Rudeboy"
21-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jared Gooden
"NiteTrain"
24-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—
L
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—