Main
Women's Strawweight
Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mackenzie Dern
Marina Rodriguez
64%
36%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
17-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
18-6-2
W4
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Dern: 49 sig / 1 TD ·
Rodriguez: 144 sig / 0 TD
Mackenzie Dern
Marina Rodriguez
44
Sig strikes landed
52
112
Sig strikes attempted
107
71
Total strikes landed
70
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.2
4.5
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
150s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Mackenzie Dern
17-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
Blue corner
W2
Marina Rodriguez
18-6-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—