Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexander Hernandez
Mike Breeden
73%
27%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
L1
Current streak
—
7
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hernandez: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Breeden: 6 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Hernandez
Mike Breeden
40
Sig strikes landed
38
95
Sig strikes attempted
80
55
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
138s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alexander Hernandez
"El Gran Chango"
18-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
Blue corner
Mike Breeden
"Money"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32