Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Joe Solecki
Jared Gordon
57%
43%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
14-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
22-9
W3
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Solecki: 38 sig / 4 TD ·
Gordon: 51 sig / 1 TD
Joe Solecki
Jared Gordon
30
Sig strikes landed
42
74
Sig strikes attempted
71
59
Total strikes landed
66
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.9
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
219s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Joe Solecki
14-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
Blue corner
W2
Jared Gordon
"Flash"
22-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—