Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Misha Cirkunov
Krzysztof Jotko
26%
74%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
35
Age
Δ 2y
32
15-10
Career record
Δ 17 pp
24-7
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Cirkunov: 41 sig / 5 TD ·
Jotko: 41 sig / 1 TD
Misha Cirkunov
Krzysztof Jotko
26
Sig strikes landed
35
64
Sig strikes attempted
76
40
Total strikes landed
55
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.5
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
119s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Misha Cirkunov
15-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
Blue corner
L1
Krzysztof Jotko
24-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—