Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Bethe Correia vs Karol Rosa
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bethe Correia
Karol Rosa
16%
84%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
38
Age
Δ 11y
27
11-7-1
Career record
Δ 16 pp
20-7
L1
Current streak
W3
11
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Correia: 62 sig / 0 TD ·
Rosa: 125 sig / 0 TD
Bethe Correia
Karol Rosa
52
Sig strikes landed
100
133
Sig strikes attempted
190
72
Total strikes landed
132
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.6
-0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
82s
Control time
239s
Method
Decision
84%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Bethe Correia
"Pitbull"
11-7-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
11 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
W3
Karol Rosa
20-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—