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Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Bethe Correia vs Karol Rosa

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Bethe Correia
Karol Rosa
16% 84%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
38
Age
Δ 11y
27
11-7-1
Career record
Δ 16 pp
20-7
L1
Current streak
W3
11
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Correia: 62 sig / 0 TD · Rosa: 125 sig / 0 TD
Bethe Correia
Karol Rosa
52
Sig strikes landed
100
133
Sig strikes attempted
190
72
Total strikes landed
132
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.6
-0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
82s
Control time
239s
Method
Decision
84%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Bethe Correia

"Pitbull"
11-7-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 11 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
L UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
L UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
D UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
Blue corner
W3

Karol Rosa

20-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
W UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
W UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…