Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Devonte Smith
Jamie Mullarkey
50%
50%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
28
Age
Δ 1y
27
12-4
Career record
Δ 7 pp
19-9
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Smith: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Mullarkey: 55 sig / 1 TD
Devonte Smith
Jamie Mullarkey
28
Sig strikes landed
22
51
Sig strikes attempted
55
38
Total strikes landed
42
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.2
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
68s
Control time
198s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Devonte Smith
"King Kage"
12-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
Blue corner
W1
Jamie Mullarkey
19-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
L
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—