Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alex Oliveira
Niko Price
68%
32%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
22-13-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
16-12
L2
Current streak
L2
20
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Oliveira: 65 sig / 1 TD ·
Price: 64 sig / 1 TD
Alex Oliveira
Niko Price
39
Sig strikes landed
38
74
Sig strikes attempted
81
56
Total strikes landed
48
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
166s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
22-13-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
20 fights · 11-8
Last 5
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
L2
Niko Price
"The Hybrid"
16-12
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
13 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
L
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—