Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Kevin Holland
Kyle Daukaus
61%
39%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 5"
76"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
29-16
Career record
Δ 13 pp
17-5
L2
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 1
Holland: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Daukaus: 9 sig / 1 TD
Kevin Holland
Kyle Daukaus
47
Sig strikes landed
34
96
Sig strikes attempted
77
63
Total strikes landed
59
0.7
Takedowns landed
2.7
1.4
Takedowns attempted
7.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
82s
Control time
295s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
29-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Kyle Daukaus
17-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—